MegaETH airdrop by...
Leader sits at 43% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31, 2026
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
18¢
June 30, 2026
Spread
25pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
217 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MegaETH airdrop by
MegaETH airdrop by...?: June 30, 2026
0xe459d1…3c8e
MegaETH airdrop by...?: December 31, 2026
0x10d8e0…937b
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectation that MegaETH will distribute an airdrop on or before December 31, 2026, with 65% confidence. The leading outcome (end of year) attracts higher trading volume than the June 30 deadline, suggesting traders view a full-year window as more realistic than a near-term announcement. The split indicates meaningful uncertainty about timing: an earlier June launch would shift probability sharply downward, while any official announcement or token lock-in event would provide concrete resolution. Market pricing reflects the absence of confirmed airdrop parameters and relies on MegaETH's development roadmap and typical crypto project timelines. The runner-up position at 16% suggests some traders expect alternative outcomes entirely.
- ›MegaETH has not publicly committed to a specific airdrop date, making any timeline speculative and dependent on future announcements
- ›June 30 contract trades at 17¢ versus December 31 at 65¢, indicating traders assign roughly 3:1 odds favoring a year-end window over mid-year delivery
- ›24-hour volume is higher on the December contract ($144) than June ($291 reported may indicate data anomaly), suggesting active repricing around the longer timeline
- ›Typical Ethereum ecosystem airdrops occur 12–24 months post-launch; MegaETH's development stage relative to launch date would determine feasibility of each deadline
- ›Any official tokenomics announcement, smart contract deployment, or regulatory filing mentioning airdrop mechanics would materially resolve current uncertainty
What moved the line
- May 21December 31, 2026↓31pp84→53¢ · Polymarket
- May 26December 31, 2026↓9pp65→56¢ · Polymarket
- May 25December 31, 2026↑8pp57→65¢ · Polymarket
- May 21June 30, 2026↓7pp30→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 22June 30, 2026↓6pp23→17¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (43% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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