MLB: ERA Leader
Leader sits at 21% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
ERA Leader: Cristopher Sánchez
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
ERA Leader: Paul Skenes
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$435
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 28, 2026
123 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MLB: ERA Leader
Analysis
This 19% probability reflects market expectations that Paul Skenes will finish the 2026 MLB season with the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers. The market views this outcome as possible but unlikely, with Ohtani and Sánchez rated nearly as probable. ERA leadership will be determined by cumulative performance over the full season through September 2026. The primary drivers are each pitcher's health, consistency, team defensive support, and workload management. October's final regular-season results will resolve the contract, with qualifying criteria (typically 67 innings pitched minimum) determining eligibility. Early-season performance and injury updates will shift probabilities throughout the year, though the bulk of statistical divergence typically occurs in the final month.
- ›Paul Skenes currently has 19¢ pricing despite lowest trading volume ($80 24h), suggesting thin liquidity rather than confident backing relative to top-volume contracts (Ohtani at $485)
- ›Ohtani and Sánchez combined represent 32¢ of probability, indicating market skepticism that any single pitcher dominates ERA races this season
- ›Qualifying pitchers must typically reach 67+ innings pitched; injury risk for any pitcher in this group could eliminate them before season's end
- ›ERA leadership typically determined in final month of season; early rankings are weak predictors, making this contract highly sensitive to July-September pitcher health and performance
- ›Current pricing suggests no clear consensus favorite, with four pitchers within 4-19¢ range, indicating high uncertainty about seasonal outcomes
What moved the line
- May 21ERA Leader: Cristopher Sánchez↓5pp13→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 24ERA Leader: Cristopher Sánchez↑5pp9→14¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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