Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2028
Leader sits at 83% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 69%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Nov 1, 2029
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
69¢
Before May 1, 2029
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$36
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 1, 2029
1253 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before
Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2027?: Before Aug 1, 2027
KXMLBDEBUT-SHERNANDEZ-27AUG01
Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2027?: Before Nov 1, 2027
KXMLBDEBUT-SHERNANDEZ-27NOV01
Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2029?: Before Nov 1, 2029
KXMLBDEBUT-SHERNANDEZ-29NOV01
Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2029?: Before Aug 1, 2029
KXMLBDEBUT-SHERNANDEZ-29AUG01
Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2028?: Before Nov 1, 2028
KXMLBDEBUT-SHERNANDEZ-28NOV01
Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2028?: Before Aug 1, 2028
KXMLBDEBUT-SHERNANDEZ-28AUG01
Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2028?: Before May 1, 2028
KXMLBDEBUT-SHERNANDEZ-28MAY01
Will Seth Hernandez play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2029?: Before May 1, 2029
KXMLBDEBUT-SHERNANDEZ-29MAY01
Analysis
This represents the current belief that Seth Hernandez will play in at least one MLB game before May 1, 2028—roughly 14 months from now. The 26% probability reflects significant uncertainty about his readiness and opportunities. Key drivers include his current status in professional baseball (minor league development, injury recovery, or organizational depth chart position) and the timeline required for him to reach MLB. The biggest resolution event would be either his MLB debut itself or the passage of May 1, 2028 without an appearance. Earlier contract prices (9¢ for debuts before November 2027 and August 2028) suggest markets view a near-term call-up as unlikely, with probabilities increasing modestly as the deadline extends further out.
- ›Current organizational position and whether Hernandez is on an MLB organization's 40-man roster or minor league affiliate
- ›Evidence of recent performance metrics, injuries, or development progress that would affect promotion likelihood in the next 14 months
- ›Typical promotion timelines for players in his situation—whether he is a prospect still developing, a recently signed prospect, or a player recovering from injury
- ›Whether the organization has early-season injuries or roster gaps that might accelerate a call-up, versus a more stable roster situation
- ›The specific date (May 1, 2028) relative to typical MLB roster movements, trades, and call-up windows during spring training and early season
What moved the line
- May 25Before Nov 1, 2028↓44pp68→24¢ · Kalshi
- May 21Before May 1, 2029↓33pp42→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 26Before May 1, 2029↑30pp26→56¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Before May 1, 2029↑28pp26→54¢ · Kalshi
- May 26Before Nov 1, 2028↑28pp24→52¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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