Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 6 million views
Leader sits at 97% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 6 million
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
At least 15 million
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
May 12, 2026
3 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least
Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 25 million views?: At least 25 million
KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY11-25
Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 30 million views?: At least 30 million
KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY11-30
Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 40 million views?: At least 40 million
KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY11-40
Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 50 million views?: At least 50 million
KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY11-50
Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 21 million views?: At least 21 million
KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY11-21
Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 35 million views?: At least 35 million
KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY11-35
Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 18 million views?: At least 18 million
KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY11-18
Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 15 million views?: At least 15 million
KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY11-15
Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 6 million views?: At least 6 million
KXNETFLIXTOPVIEWSMOVIE-26MAY11-6
What moved the line
- May 7At least 25 million↑33pp29→62¢ · Kalshi
- May 7At least 18 million↑21pp58→79¢ · Kalshi
- May 7At least 21 million↑20pp48→68¢ · Kalshi
- May 7At least 15 million↑18pp70→88¢ · Kalshi
- May 8At least 21 million↑11pp68→79¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in entertainment
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.