Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
30%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−1pp
14h ago
24h volume
$518
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by...?: May 31
0x45c18b…3392
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Russian forces will capture the entire town of Hryshyne by an unspecified deadline. At 31%, traders assess this outcome as unlikely but plausible within the relevant timeframe. The current level reflects the pace of Russian advances in eastern Ukraine and the defensive capacity of Ukrainian forces in the region. Upward pressure comes from Russian territorial gains; downward pressure from Ukrainian counteroffensives or stabilized front lines. The most relevant catalyst is the actual rate of Russian progress toward Hryshyne over the coming weeks, which will either confirm expectations of slow advances or signal acceleration. Market participants are also tracking broader developments in military aid flows to Ukraine and changes in combat intensity that could affect the speed of territorial changes.
- ›Current Russian force positioning relative to Hryshyne and documented daily territorial changes in the surrounding area
- ›Ukrainian defensive infrastructure and reported troop deployments in and around Hryshyne
- ›Rate of attrition and equipment replacement for both Russian and Ukrainian forces in this sector
- ›Western military aid deliveries to Ukraine and their stated impact on defensive capability
- ›Recent trend of Russian offensive progress versus stabilization or Ukrainian counterattacks in adjacent territory
What moved the line
- May 1May 31↓13pp45→32¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28May 31↓11pp52→41¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 26May 31↑9pp48→57¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30May 31↑6pp39→45¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27May 31↓5pp57→52¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (30% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.