Putin out as President of Russia by June 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$171K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
11 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
0x1a1346…129e
Analysis
This market reflects a 3% probability that Putin ceases to be President of Russia by June 30, 2026—approximately 17 days from today. The low probability reflects the institutional stability of Russia's political system and absence of imminent succession signals. The metric would shift primarily on evidence of health crisis, coup activity, constitutional change, or explicit statements from power centers indicating transition. Since the resolution date is 17 days away, any major political event—unexpected government announcements, military developments, or health disclosures—represents the main remaining catalyst for significant probability movement. The market essentially prices this as an extremely low-probability tail event within a compressed timeframe.
- ›Putin has held the presidency since 2000 with no announced succession plans or constitutional changes currently in motion
- ›Recent constitutional amendments (2020) extended potential presidential tenure through 2036, suggesting institutional intent for continuity
- ›No credible reporting indicates imminent health crises, military coup attempts, or factional power struggles at the highest levels of Russian government
- ›The 17-day resolution window leaves minimal time for political upheaval to develop and crystallize into actual presidential transition
- ›Market is priced at historical lows for such events, indicating consensus view that near-term removal is extremely unlikely absent unprecedented developments
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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