Ukraine War Prediction Market Odds

Russia on the Brink of Capturing Pokrovsk as War Momentum Shifts

The 'Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31' contract surged a staggering 43¢ to 93¢, signaling the market expects a decisive Russian victory within days. This has spillover effects on Ukraine peace deal probabilities, which rose 3¢ to 31¢.

Ukraine Re-Enters Uspenivka – Odds Skyrocket 34 Points

The probability of Ukraine re-entering the key frontline town of Uspenivka by May 31 exploded from 5¢ to 39¢, suggesting a major Ukrainian counteroffensive. This is the day's biggest mover across all topics.

Market Sees Diminished Odds of Russia Capturing Lyman by Year-End

The 'Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31' contract plummeted 13¢ to 41¢, a massive single-day move indicating a dramatic shift in the market's assessment of the war in Ukraine. This could be driven by recent reports of successful Ukrainian counter-offensives or renewed Western military aid packages.

Ukraine peace deal probability edges up as diplomatic rumors swirl

The 'Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027' contract rose 4¢ to 37¢, while 'by June 30' rose 2¢. Zelenskyy out probability tripled to 6¢. These moves suggest renewed hope for a ceasefire.

Ukraine Peace Deal Odds Spike 10 Points

The probability of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by the end of 2027 surged by 10 points to 37¢, according to Polymarket. This is a massive single-day move for a major geopolitical event, suggesting a potential news catalyst or a significant shift in market sentiment.

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Contract Surges to 100¢ on Massive Volume

The Polymarket contract for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026 jumped from 4¢ to 100¢ in a single day, with over 30 million in volume. This suggests either a credible news report or an imminent agreement.

Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Shock: Probability Skyrockets from 4¢ to 100¢

A surprise breakthrough in peace talks drove the 'ceasefire by May 31' contract from near-zero to certainty, making it the day's single biggest mover. Traders who held 'No' contracts saw a complete loss, while 'Yes' holders gained massive returns.

Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske: Battlefield Market Resolves at 93¢

The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' contract surged +88¢ to 93¢ in a single session, one of the largest single-day moves in the entire dataset. The May 31 version also jumped +79¢ to 96¢. This near-certain resolution suggests Ukrainian forces have successfully re-entered the contested town of Rodynske.

Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske — Biggest Battlefield Move in Prediction Markets

The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' market exploded +92¢ to 96¢, one of the single largest moves in the entire dataset today. This effectively confirms Ukrainian forces have re-taken the town of Rodynske, representing a significant tactical reversal in the Donetsk region.

Russia Seizes Rai-Oleksandrivka: Battlefield Surge Sends Contract to 93 Cents

The 'Russia enters Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30' contract exploded 40 cents to 93 cents on $44k volume, one of the largest single-day moves in the Ukraine complex. This suggests imminent Russian capture of a strategically positioned settlement in the Zaporizhzhia region.