Ukraine War Prediction Market Odds

Russia Advancing on Donbas — Kostyantynivka Capture by June at 62%

Prediction markets price Kostyantynivka capture by June 2026 at 62%, reflecting expectations of sustained Russian Donbas momentum and minimal ceasefire prospects through 2026.

Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents

The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.

Russia Captures Ukrainian Town: War Odds Flip

The probability of Russia capturing all of Hryshyne by May 31 jumped 59¢ to 83¢, signaling a major battlefield gain. This has knock-on effects for Ukraine peace deal markets and oil supply concerns from potential disruptions in the Black Sea.

Russia on the Brink of Capturing Pokrovsk as War Momentum Shifts

The 'Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31' contract surged a staggering 43¢ to 93¢, signaling the market expects a decisive Russian victory within days. This has spillover effects on Ukraine peace deal probabilities, which rose 3¢ to 31¢.

Ukraine Re-Enters Uspenivka – Odds Skyrocket 34 Points

The probability of Ukraine re-entering the key frontline town of Uspenivka by May 31 exploded from 5¢ to 39¢, suggesting a major Ukrainian counteroffensive. This is the day's biggest mover across all topics.

Market Sees Diminished Odds of Russia Capturing Lyman by Year-End

The 'Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31' contract plummeted 13¢ to 41¢, a massive single-day move indicating a dramatic shift in the market's assessment of the war in Ukraine. This could be driven by recent reports of successful Ukrainian counter-offensives or renewed Western military aid packages.

Ukraine peace deal probability edges up as diplomatic rumors swirl

The 'Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027' contract rose 4¢ to 37¢, while 'by June 30' rose 2¢. Zelenskyy out probability tripled to 6¢. These moves suggest renewed hope for a ceasefire.

Ukraine Peace Deal Odds Spike 10 Points

The probability of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by the end of 2027 surged by 10 points to 37¢, according to Polymarket. This is a massive single-day move for a major geopolitical event, suggesting a potential news catalyst or a significant shift in market sentiment.

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Contract Surges to 100¢ on Massive Volume

The Polymarket contract for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026 jumped from 4¢ to 100¢ in a single day, with over 30 million in volume. This suggests either a credible news report or an imminent agreement.

Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Shock: Probability Skyrockets from 4¢ to 100¢

A surprise breakthrough in peace talks drove the 'ceasefire by May 31' contract from near-zero to certainty, making it the day's single biggest mover. Traders who held 'No' contracts saw a complete loss, while 'Yes' holders gained massive returns.