Bank of Russia decision in April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 6 contracts. Kalshi at 6%, Polymarket at 59% — a 53pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
1 contract
Polymarket
59%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
53pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
6 contracts
Closes
Jul 6, 2026
29 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 6¢ · Polymarket 59¢ · 53pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (6¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (59¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Bank of Russia decision in June
Cluster 2
Bank of Japan Decision in June
Bank of Japan Decision in June?: 25 bps increase
0xb3237c…cff4
Cluster 3
Bank of Brazil Decision in June
Bank of Brazil Decision in June?: No Change
0x0111a2…7eac
Cluster 4
Bank of Israel Decision in July
Bank of Israel Decision in July?: No Change
0x17c51c…1b83
Cluster 5
Will the Bank of Russia Maintain current rate at the June Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting
What moved the line
- Jun 6No Change↑14pp47→61¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5No Change↑8pp39→47¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3No Change↑7pp27→34¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2No Change↓7pp39→32¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5Decrease↑7pp86→93¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents
The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
Russia Captures Ukrainian Town: War Odds Flip
The probability of Russia capturing all of Hryshyne by May 31 jumped 59¢ to 83¢, signaling a major battlefield gain. This has knock-on effects for Ukraine peace deal markets and oil supply concerns from potential disruptions in the Black Sea.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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