Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
20%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+2pp
14h ago
24h volume
$936
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?: May 31
0xe43234…a91d
Analysis
This contract estimates an 18% probability that Russian forces will capture the entirety of Huliaipole by a specified deadline. Huliaipole is a town in southeastern Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Oblast that has been subject to contested fighting. The low probability reflects the current military stalemate and the challenging logistics of capturing and consolidating control over populated areas. Market participants appear skeptical of rapid Russian territorial advances, likely because front-line movement has been incremental despite sustained offensive operations. The main factors influencing this probability are the pace of Russian advances relative to Ukrainian defensive capabilities and the rate of attrition on both sides. As the deadline approaches, market prices typically compress toward either 0 or 100 cents depending on whether Russian forces achieve measurable progress toward surrounding or taking the town.
- ›Current front-line positions and distance of Russian forces from Huliaipole as of the deadline date
- ›Historical rate of Russian territorial gains in this sector over the past 3-6 months compared to what would be required to meet the deadline
- ›Ukrainian military capability to maintain defensive positions or execute counteroffensives in the Zaporizhzhia region
- ›Availability of reinforcements, ammunition, and logistics supporting Russian offensive operations in this theater
- ›Whether Russian forces establish siege conditions or complete encirclement of the town before the resolution date
What moved the line
- May 1May 31↓12pp37→25¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 26May 31↓10pp59→49¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27May 31↓8pp49→41¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28May 31↑7pp41→48¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29May 31↓7pp48→41¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (20% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.