Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...
Leader sits at 35% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
September 30
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$828
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Russian forces will capture all of Prymorske, a settlement in eastern Ukraine, by a specified deadline. The 4% probability reflects assessments that Russia currently lacks sufficient forces and momentum to fully control this location within the timeframe. Key factors shaping this low probability include the pace of Russian advances, Ukrainian defensive capabilities, and available military resources. The main catalyst would be verified military movements—any significant territorial change in the region or confirmed shifts in combat dynamics would substantially affect the probability. Prymorske's strategic importance, proximity to Russian-held territory, and the intensity of active fighting in the surrounding area will determine whether this contract resolves favorably. Market participants appear skeptical of rapid Russian territorial gains given historical patterns and current frontline conditions.
- ›Russian forces' current rate of advance toward Prymorske and available assault capabilities
- ›Presence and effectiveness of Ukrainian defensive positions and counteroffensive capacity in the region
- ›Verified control of adjacent settlements and whether Russian forces maintain logistical momentum
- ›The specified contract deadline relative to typical operational timelines for capturing fortified settlements
- ›International military aid levels and their impact on Ukrainian defensive sustainability
What moved the line
- May 2December 31↑21pp16→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 1September 30↓12pp30→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 1December 31↓11pp27→16¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29May 31↓8pp13→5¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28May 31↑7pp6→13¢ · Polymarket
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.