Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...
Leader sits at 32% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
September 30
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
May 31
Spread
25pp
contested
24h volume
$321
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 30, 2026
149 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by
Analysis
This market is asking whether Russia will capture all of Stepnohirsk by a specific deadline, with traders currently assigning a 35% probability to that outcome. The price reflects skepticism about rapid Russian territorial gains in this sector, given the slow pace of recent advances and Ukrainian defensive positions. The main drivers of this probability are the current rate of Russian operational progress (measured in kilometers per month), Ukrainian defensive capability and supply constraints, and the specific deadline being evaluated. Broader factors include Russia's manpower availability, logistical sustainability, and whether major strategic shifts occur. The nearest near-term catalyst would be observable changes in front-line positions and military activity reports over the coming weeks, which would either validate or challenge current assumptions about Russian momentum in this area.
- ›Current Russian advance rate in the Stepnohirsk sector compared to historical monthly gains
- ›Ukrainian defensive preparations and availability of reserves or counterattack capability in this region
- ›Russia's demonstrated logistical capacity to sustain multi-front operations versus supply and manpower constraints
- ›Whether the specific deadline mentioned aligns with feasible military timelines given terrain and fortified positions
- ›Recent contract activity showing divergent probabilities for nearby cities (e.g., 77% for Kostyantynivka by end-2026 vs. 27% by June 2026) suggesting deadline sensitivity
What moved the line
- May 2September 30↑7pp26→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 1September 30↓5pp31→26¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29May 31↓3pp8→5¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (32% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.