Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
16%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−1pp
15h ago
24h volume
$135
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by...?: May 31
0xbd2a19…0f33
Analysis
This 17% probability reflects the chance that Russian military forces will capture Krasnoiarske, a city in southeastern Ukraine, by a specified deadline. The low probability suggests market participants view a Russian breakthrough to this location as unlikely within the timeframe, though not impossible. Market pricing reflects the distance of Krasnoiarske from current Russian-held territory and the defensive capacity of Ukrainian forces in the region. The probability would rise if Russia achieves rapid territorial gains in neighboring areas or if Ukrainian defensive positions weaken significantly. Conversely, it would decline if Ukrainian counteroffensives succeed or if Russian offensive momentum slows. The resolution depends primarily on military developments on the ground in the coming weeks, with any major shift in frontline positions potentially triggering significant repricing.
- ›Current distance of Russian forces from Krasnoiarske and pace of Russian territorial advance in southeastern Ukraine
- ›Status and strength of Ukrainian defensive lines between Russian-held territory and the city
- ›Russian military resources and supply lines available for offensive operations in this sector versus competing priorities
- ›Comparison to similar cities in related markets (Vasylivka at 50%, Novooleksandrivka at 74% for May 31) suggesting market views Russia unlikely to reach Krasnoiarske as quickly as other objectives
- ›The specified deadline for resolution and whether it allows sufficient time for Russian forces to overcome intervening defensive positions
What moved the line
- Apr 29May 31↑21pp16→37¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30May 31↓16pp37→21¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27May 31↓14pp26→12¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 26May 31↑7pp19→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 1May 31↓5pp21→16¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (16% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske — Biggest Battlefield Move in Prediction Markets
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.