Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
20%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+2pp
14h ago
24h volume
$688
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by...?: May 31
0xb744bc…7dc5
Analysis
This contract reflects a prediction that Russian forces will capture Krasnopillya by a specified deadline. An 18% probability indicates low but non-negligible market confidence in this outcome. The prediction is informed by current frontline positions and the pace of Russian advances in the region. Key factors shaping the probability include the distance between Russian-held territory and Krasnopillya, the defensive capabilities of Ukrainian forces, supply line sustainability for Russian operations, and seasonal weather impacts on military mobility. Resolution will depend on verified Russian military control of the location by the contract deadline. Related markets suggest higher confidence in Russian advances toward other nearby towns like Novooleksandrivka by May 31, while Krasnopillya appears viewed as a lower-probability target within the same timeframe. Market pricing reflects uncertainty about Russian operational priorities and Ukrainian defensive effectiveness in this sector.
- ›Current distance between Russian forward positions and Krasnopillya, and documented rate of Russian territorial gains in this specific area
- ›Quality and quantity of Ukrainian defensive positions and reserves committed to holding Krasnopillya
- ›Supply line integrity and logistical capacity supporting Russian offensive operations in the region
- ›Related market pricing on nearby towns (higher probabilities for Novooleksandrivka and Vasylivka suggest relative difficulty of Krasnopillya capture)
- ›Seasonal military mobility factors including road conditions and weather patterns between now and contract deadline
What moved the line
- Apr 29May 31↓8pp32→24¢ · Polymarket
- May 2May 31↓7pp25→18¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27May 31↓6pp36→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 1May 31↑6pp19→25¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30May 31↓5pp24→19¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (20% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.