Will Russia enter Myrne by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
21%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$295
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Myrne by
Will Russia enter Myrne by...?: May 31
0x9391cd…31b4
Analysis
This 21% probability reflects market expectations that Russian forces will enter Myrne by a specified deadline. The forecast sits between higher confidence that nearby Novooleksandrivka will be captured by May 31 (74%) and lower confidence in Orikhiv by July 31 (26%), suggesting Myrne occupies uncertain middle ground in Russian territorial objectives. Market prices depend on current front-line positions, Russia's operational tempo, logistical capacity, and Ukrainian defensive capabilities. The resolution hinges on verified Russian military presence in Myrne, likely confirmed through geolocated reports, official statements, or independent monitoring. Upcoming military developments over the next 1-3 months will clarify whether Russian advance rates accelerate, stall, or reverse, directly impacting whether forces can reach Myrne within the timeframe.
- ›Current Russian front-line distance from Myrne and recent rate of territorial gain in the region
- ›Relative market confidence in Russian capture of adjacent settlements by May 31 versus later July 31 deadlines suggests phased geographic expectations
- ›Ukrainian defensive posture and force availability specifically in the Myrne sector
- ›Russian logistical constraints and whether committed reserves are sufficient for continued offensive operations
- ›External factors including weapons supply to Ukraine, weather conditions, and casualty rates affecting operational capacity
What moved the line
- Apr 26May 31↓14pp52→38¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29May 31↓12pp48→36¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30May 31↑12pp36→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 2May 31↓11pp39→28¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28May 31↑9pp39→48¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (21% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske — Biggest Battlefield Move in Prediction Markets
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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