Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 76% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
76%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+2pp
14h ago
24h volume
$744
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...?: May 31
0x6fd1df…af1c
Analysis
This probability indicates market participants assess a 74% chance Russia will capture Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026—roughly four weeks from the current date. The assessment reflects Russia's ongoing territorial advances in southern Ukraine and recent momentum in the Zaporizhzhia region, balanced against Ukrainian defensive capabilities and logistical constraints that have slowed Russian operations in previous offensives. The primary driver of this probability is the current rate of Russian territorial gain; faster advances would increase the probability, while successful Ukrainian counterattacks or stabilized front lines would decrease it. The resolution date of May 31 means the market will clarify outcome within weeks, making current prices highly sensitive to battlefield reports and operational tempo. Key metrics traders monitor include Russian artillery intensity, supply line status, and the distance Russian forces maintain from the town.
- ›Current distance between Russian front lines and Novooleksandrivka and weekly rate of territorial change
- ›Status of Ukrainian defensive fortifications and available reserve forces in the sector
- ›Russian logistics capacity and casualty replacement rates determining sustainable offensive momentum
- ›Weather and terrain conditions affecting mechanized operations in the region
- ›Documented Russian artillery and ammunition consumption rates versus supply replenishment
What moved the line
- May 2May 31↑12pp68→80¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28May 31↓11pp77→66¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30May 31↑10pp57→67¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29May 31↓9pp66→57¢ · Polymarket
- May 3May 31↓6pp80→74¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (76% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske — Biggest Battlefield Move in Prediction Markets
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.