Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by...
Leader sits at 28% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
June 30
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
May 31
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
57 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by
Analysis
This market gauges the likelihood that Russian forces will capture the settlement of Novyi Donbas in Zaporizhzhia Oblast by May 31, 2026, currently priced at 22%. The probability reflects expectations of Russian military advances in this sector over the next four weeks. The contract's relatively low odds suggest market participants view capture as unlikely within the timeframe, though Russia maintains active operations in the broader region. Key factors driving this price include the pace of Russian offensive momentum, defensive capacity of Ukrainian forces, and the specific geographic distance Russian forces must cover. The May 31 deadline provides a near-term resolution point with minimal ambiguity about whether the settlement has been captured.
- ›Current front-line positions relative to Novyi Donbas and the distance Russian forces must advance to achieve capture
- ›Comparative pricing of neighboring settlements (Novooleksandrivka at 74% for May 31, Vasylivka at 50%) indicates market assessment of differential capture likelihood across the sector
- ›Historical pace of Russian territorial gains in this region over the past 3-6 months and whether current momentum supports four-week capture
- ›Ukrainian defensive posture and reserve availability in Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- ›Weather and seasonal conditions between early May and late May that could affect military mobility
What moved the line
- Apr 29June 30↑24pp50→74¢ · Polymarket
- May 1June 30↓24pp70→46¢ · Polymarket
- May 1May 31↓16pp46→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 2June 30↓12pp46→34¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 26May 31↑10pp53→63¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (28% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.