Will Russia enter Serhiivka by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
8%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+1pp
14h ago
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by...?: May 31
0x43cf56…76c4
Analysis
This contract estimates a 7% probability that Russian forces will capture Serhiivka by a specified deadline. The low probability reflects the current distance between Russian front lines and Serhiivka, located in southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, as well as the relatively slow pace of Russian territorial gains in this sector over recent months. The probability could rise if Russian advances accelerate in the region or if Ukrainian defensive positions weaken, and could fall if front lines stabilize or shift in Ukraine's favor. The contract will be resolved based on verified reports of Russian military control of the settlement, which typically requires sustained occupation and administrative takeover rather than brief tactical incursions.
- ›Current Russian front-line position relative to Serhiivka and the distance required to capture it
- ›Historical rate of Russian territorial gains in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past 3-6 months
- ›Ukrainian defensive capability and troop concentrations in the Serhiivka area
- ›Relative probability of capture in nearby settlements (Vasylivka at 50%, Novooleksandrivka at 74%) suggests lower strategic priority or greater defensive difficulty for this specific location
- ›Seasonal and weather factors affecting military operations and supply lines in the region
What moved the line
- Apr 30May 31↓21pp33→12¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28May 31↑14pp27→41¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 26May 31↑9pp22→31¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29May 31↓8pp41→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 1May 31↓6pp12→6¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (8% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.