Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
25%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?: May 31
0xda7018…cf6d
Analysis
This prediction reflects market estimates that Russia will capture Ternuvate by a specified date. The 25% probability suggests traders view this outcome as unlikely but possible within the timeframe. The assessment depends primarily on current Russian military capabilities and the pace of advances in this sector of the conflict, weighed against Ukrainian defensive capacity. Related contract probabilities for nearby towns vary significantly—Novooleksandrivka shows 74% by May 31, while Novyi Donbas shows only 22%—suggesting traders view different locations as having materially different capture probabilities. The main uncertainty drivers are the rate of territorial changes in the coming weeks and whether Russian forces can maintain or accelerate recent operational tempo. Resolution will depend on frontline status on or before the contract deadline, making near-term military developments the primary factor affecting this probability.
- ›Current distance and geography between Russian forward positions and Ternuvate, which determines the operational scope required for capture
- ›Relative probability assessments for surrounding towns (particularly Novooleksandrivka at 74% vs. Ternuvate at 25%), indicating market differentiation based on local military conditions
- ›Recent weekly or monthly rate of Russian territorial advance in this specific sector, compared to historical averages
- ›Ukrainian force concentration and defensive preparations in and around Ternuvate, based on available military reporting
- ›The specific contract deadline date relative to current calendar position—how much time remains for advance requirements
What moved the line
- Apr 29May 31↓17pp44→27¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 26May 31↓8pp53→45¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27May 31↓7pp45→38¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28May 31↑6pp38→44¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30May 31↓6pp27→21¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (25% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.