Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
6%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$135K
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
0xa93b28…9b35
Analysis
This contract measures the probability that Russia and Ukraine will agree to a ceasefire by May 31, 2026—roughly four weeks from the current date. The 6% probability reflects assessments that a near-term diplomatic breakthrough is unlikely. Most investors pricing this contract appear to view continued conflict as the base case, particularly given historical patterns of failed negotiation attempts and the compressed timeframe. The probability could shift materially if either side signals willingness to negotiate substantively, if international mediators announce active diplomatic channels, or if military conditions change dramatically enough to alter incentive structures. With less than 30 days remaining, any meaningful movement in this probability would likely reflect new developments in peace talks or battlefield dynamics rather than longer-term trend analysis.
- ›Recent diplomatic statements and official positions from Russian and Ukrainian leadership regarding ceasefire conditions and preconditions
- ›Changes in military operational tempo or territorial control that might signal shift in either party's willingness to negotiate
- ›Involvement of credible international mediators and whether either government confirms active negotiations are underway
- ›Comparison of this 6% probability to the 26% probability for ceasefire by end-of-2026, indicating market assigns significantly higher probability to longer timeframe
- ›Trading volume and implied bet sizing on this specific contract relative to other Russia-Ukraine outcomes
What moved the line
- Apr 28Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?↑14pp5→19¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?↓13pp19→6¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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