SAVE Act becomes law by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
SAVE Act becomes law by
SAVE Act becomes law by...?: May 31
0xc473d9…7626
Analysis
The SAVE Act (H.R. 22) is a proposed immigration enforcement bill currently being assessed for passage into law before January 4, 2027. The 4% probability reflects structural headwinds: the measure requires passage through both chambers of Congress and presidential signature, a multi-stage process with limited time remaining in 2026. The probability would shift based on whether the bill advances through committee votes, gains co-sponsor momentum in both chambers, and receives signals of executive support. The most concrete catalyst would be movement through House or Senate committees, which would indicate whether the bill has sufficient backing to reach a floor vote before year-end. Related predictions suggest varied legislative success rates across different proposals, with the SAVE Act specifically facing lower odds than some comparable measures.
- ›Current House and Senate committee status of H.R. 22, including whether it has been scheduled for hearings or markups
- ›Number of co-sponsors across both chambers relative to bills that successfully advance to floor votes
- ›Public statements from House and Senate leadership indicating whether the bill is prioritized in the legislative schedule
- ›Historical timing: bills require committee passage, floor debate, and reconciliation across two chambers within 233 days (May 2026 to January 2027)
- ›Administration messaging regarding support or opposition to the bill's specific provisions
Recently closed in legislation
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In legislation
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.