Will legislation that authorizes siting the Women’s History Museum within the National Mall Reserve become law before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 76% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 61%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Housing for the 21st Century Act
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
61¢
Railway safety bill
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$434
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
207 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will legislation that
Will legislation that would require Treasury to mint and issue $2.50 coins to mark America’s 250th anniversary become law before Jan 1, 2027?: $2.50 Coin
KXBILLS-250C
Will legislation that imposes enhanced federal safety requirements on freight rail carriers and trains transporting hazardous materials (e.g., mandates for wayside defect detectors, two-person crews, tank car safety standards, and state emergency notification) become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Railway safety bill
KXBILLS-26MAY-RAIL
Will legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes become law before Jan 1, 2027?: DEFIANCE Act
KXBILLS-DEFY
Will legislation that requires location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Export-control chip security
KXBILLS-CHIP
Will legislation that authorizes funding for construction of a presidential ballroom become law before Jan 1, 2027?: White House ballroom funding
KXBILLS-BALL
Will legislation that prohibits data center power usage from increasing consumers' electric utility bills become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Data center utility cost protection
KXBILLS-DATA
Will legislation that designates June 14, the birthday of President Donald J. Trump, as a legal public holiday for federal employees become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday
KXBILLS-DJTB
Will legislation that allows year-round nationwide sale of E15 fuel by extending the Clean Air Act Reid Vapor Pressure waiver to ethanol blends up to 15% become law before Jan 1, 2027?: E15 year-round sales
KXBILLS-E15
Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act
KXBILLS-HRCA
Will legislation that mandates expanded adoption of ADS-B “Out” aircraft tracking technology become law before Jan 1, 2027?: ROTOR Act
KXBILLS-ROTOR
Will legislation that preempts state and local autonomous vehicle laws by establishing a unified federal regulatory framework for the testing and deployment of vehicles equipped with automated driving systems become law before Jan 1, 2027?: SELF DRIVE Act
KXBILLS-DRIVE
Will legislation that would revise federal housing programs to increase housing supply and affordability by expanding federal financing and grant authority for affordable housing and streamlining federal requirements that delay housing development become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Housing for the 21st Century Act
KXBILLS-HOUS
Will legislation that renames Washington Dulles International Airport after Donald Trump become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Trump Airport
KXBILLS-AIRP
Will legislation that authorizes siting the Women’s History Museum within the National Mall Reserve become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Smithsonian Women’s History Museum
KXBILLS-SMITH
Will legislation that redefines “showerhead” for DOE rules to allow multi-nozzle systems become law before Jan 1, 2027?: SHOWER Act
KXBILLS-SHOW
Will legislation that extends Section 181 expensing for film and television productions become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Film/TV production expensing
KXBILLS-TV
Will legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Critical-minerals stockpile
KXBILLS-MIN
Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years become law before Jan 1, 2027?: FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)
KXBILLS-FISA
Will legislation that subjects covered AI-chip exports to mandatory congressional review with a statutory blocking period become law before Jan 1, 2027?: AI-chip export licensing
KXBILLS-AIO
Will legislation that requires two unaffiliated networks for processing covered credit-card transactions become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Credit-card routing competition
KXBILLS-CCR
Analysis
This measures the likelihood that Congress will pass and the President will sign legislation authorizing the Women's History Museum on the National Mall before year-end 2026. The 36% probability reflects modest but uncertain support. The main drivers are whether Democratic and Republican leadership prioritize this cultural initiative amid competing legislative agendas, and whether the proposal maintains broad enough support to advance through committee and floor votes in both chambers. The critical catalyst is House and Senate activity during the remainder of 2026; any bill that clears committee and reaches a chamber floor substantially increases passage odds. Summer and fall floor schedules will largely determine whether this competes successfully against higher-priority legislation for floor time. Budget constraints and competing priorities for National Mall real estate could further limit momentum.
- ›No signed agreement exists yet between relevant committees and leadership as of late April 2026, reducing likelihood of rapid passage
- ›The 17-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (37%) and Polymarket (20%) suggests meaningful uncertainty about bill advancement or legislative appetite
- ›Congressional floor time allocation in 2026 remains contested; cultural projects typically rank below fiscal, security, and partisan priority legislation
- ›National Mall space availability and feasibility studies would need to show viability; delays in site planning reduce passage probability
- ›A bill would need to clear both House and Senate and secure presidential signature within approximately 8 months, a tight timeline for non-essential legislation
What moved the line
- Jun 1FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)↓10pp31→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4DEFIANCE Act↓6pp53→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Housing for the 21st Century Act↓6pp85→79¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)↑5pp21→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4ROTOR Act↓4pp42→38¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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