Will legislation that authorizes siting the Women’s History Museum within the National Mall Reserve become law before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 48% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 47%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
47¢
College sports federalizatio
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$526
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
103 days
Venue
Kalshi
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will legislation
Will legislation principally aimed at establishing a federal framework for college sports, including through NIL preemption, antitrust treatment of association rules, athlete-compensation standards, student-athlete protections, or employment-status rules become law before Jan 1, 2027?: College sports federalization
KXBILLS-NIL
Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years become law before Jan 1, 2027?: FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)
KXBILLS-FISA
Will legislation that allows year-round nationwide sale of E15 fuel by extending the Clean Air Act Reid Vapor Pressure waiver to ethanol blends up to 15% become law before Jan 1, 2027?: E15 year-round sales
KXBILLS-E15
Will legislation that pairs enhanced border security and mandatory E-Verify with asylum system reforms and an earned legal status program (without a path to citizenship) for certain long-term undocumented immigrants become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Dignity Act
KXBILLS-DIGNITY
Will legislation that prohibits data center power usage from increasing consumers' electric utility bills become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Data center utility cost protection
KXBILLS-DATA
Will legislation that requires location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Export-control chip security
KXBILLS-CHIP
Will legislation that changes the official name of Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to Fort Liberty become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Fort Bragg → Fort Liberty
KXBILLS-BRAGG
Will legislation that conditions eligibility for Department of Defense contracts on covered contractors refraining from stock buybacks become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions
KXBILLS-BBAC
Will legislation that authorizes funding for construction of a presidential ballroom become law before Jan 1, 2027?: White House ballroom funding
KXBILLS-BALL
Will legislation that renames Washington Dulles International Airport after Donald Trump become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Trump Airport
KXBILLS-AIRP
Will legislation that subjects covered AI-chip exports to mandatory congressional review with a statutory blocking period become law before Jan 1, 2027?: AI-chip export licensing
KXBILLS-AIO
Will legislation that bars government agencies or private entities from using ADS-B aircraft-tracking data to identify aircraft for the purpose of obtaining revenue from the aircraft owner or operator without consent become law before Jan 1, 2027?: ADS-B revenue-use restriction
KXBILLS-ADSB
Will legislation that imposes enhanced federal safety requirements on freight rail carriers and trains transporting hazardous materials (e.g., mandates for wayside defect detectors, two-person crews, tank car safety standards, and state emergency notification) become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Railway safety bill
KXBILLS-26MAY-RAIL
Will legislation that limits out-of-pocket costs for insulin for privately insured patients to no more than $40 per month, per 30-day supply, or equivalent monthly period become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Insulin cost cap
KXBILLS-26JUN-INSULIN
Will legislation principally aimed at curbing federal coercion of speech intermediaries (social media platforms, AI systems, broadcasters), including through a private right of action against agencies or officials, monetary damages, or mandatory disclosure of government-to-platform communications become law before Jan 1, 2027?: JAWBONE Act
KXBILLS-26-JAWB
Will legislation that would require Treasury to mint and issue $2.50 coins to mark America’s 250th anniversary become law before Jan 1, 2027?: $2.50 Coin
KXBILLS-250C
Analysis
This contract resolves to YES if Congress passes and the President signs legislation authorizing a Women's History Museum on the National Mall before year-end 2026. The 42% probability reflects modest but not negligible chances, suggesting meaningful legislative interest but substantial hurdles remain. The core drivers are current congressional appetite for cultural and historical funding initiatives, and the procedural difficulty of securing floor time and bipartisan support within a six-month window. The single biggest catalyst is the outcome of congressional scheduling decisions in July–September 2026, when leaders typically finalize their legislative calendars for the final quarter. Bills advancing through committee or receiving explicit leadership commitment would shift probabilities materially upward; conversely, competing infrastructure or appropriations priorities could displace this initiative from the agenda entirely.
- ›Congressional committees must vote the bill out of committee and leadership must allocate scarce floor time before January 1, 2027—fewer than 155 legislative days remain
- ›The bill requires presidential signature; unified control of Congress and the White House increases passage likelihood compared to divided government scenarios
- ›Museum authorization bills historically achieve lower pass rates than infrastructure or appropriations legislation, despite bipartisan cultural support
- ›Competing legislative priorities (surface transportation reauthorization, railway safety, appropriations deadlines) compete for the same finite legislative capacity in 2026
- ›Recent congressional activity and committee scheduling in June–July 2026 will signal whether this proposal has serious sponsor momentum or remains aspirational
What moved the line
- Sep 17College sports federalization↑11pp34→45¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions↓10pp58→48¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Data center utility cost protection↑9pp9→18¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Data center utility cost protection↓8pp15→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Insulin cost cap↑6pp13→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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