Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026

Analysis

This 94% probability indicates that traders believe there is a high likelihood the Senate will pass a reconciliation bill before May 20, 2026—just over one week away. Senate reconciliation bills bypass the 60-vote filibuster requirement, making passage with simple-majority support possible. The high confidence likely reflects recent legislative progress, existing draft language, or explicit leadership signals about timing. The main factors pushing this probability upward would be confirmation of floor scheduling and resolution of internal party disagreements; downward pressure would come from procedural delays, contested amendments, or pivots to alternative legislative vehicles. The critical catalyst is whether Senate leadership announces a specific floor schedule within the next few days, as that would provide concrete evidence of intent to meet the May 20 deadline.

• ›Senate Majority Leader has publicly committed to a specific floor vote date before May 20
• ›Current draft reconciliation text has secured support from at least 50 senators representing the majority party
• ›No significant procedural holds or unanimous-consent objections have been placed on the measure as of the trading date
• ›Committee markup or Senate floor consideration has already begun, indicating active legislative momentum
• ›Alternative legislative pathways (standalone bills, continuing resolutions) have been explicitly ruled out by leadership

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