Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026
Leader sits at 94% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jun 14, 2026
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
Before Jun 6, 2026
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$18K
liquid
Closes
Jun 14, 2026
21 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 23, 2026?: Before May 23, 2026
KXSENATEREC-26MAY-MAY23
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026?: Before May 20, 2026
KXSENATEREC-26MAY-MAY20
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026?: Before Jun 6, 2026
KXSENATEREC-26MAY-JUN06
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 16, 2026?: Before May 16, 2026
KXSENATEREC-26MAY-MAY16
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026?: Before Jun 14, 2026
KXSENATEREC-26MAY-JUN14
Analysis
This 94% probability indicates that traders believe there is a high likelihood the Senate will pass a reconciliation bill before May 20, 2026—just over one week away. Senate reconciliation bills bypass the 60-vote filibuster requirement, making passage with simple-majority support possible. The high confidence likely reflects recent legislative progress, existing draft language, or explicit leadership signals about timing. The main factors pushing this probability upward would be confirmation of floor scheduling and resolution of internal party disagreements; downward pressure would come from procedural delays, contested amendments, or pivots to alternative legislative vehicles. The critical catalyst is whether Senate leadership announces a specific floor schedule within the next few days, as that would provide concrete evidence of intent to meet the May 20 deadline.
- ›Senate Majority Leader has publicly committed to a specific floor vote date before May 20
- ›Current draft reconciliation text has secured support from at least 50 senators representing the majority party
- ›No significant procedural holds or unanimous-consent objections have been placed on the measure as of the trading date
- ›Committee markup or Senate floor consideration has already begun, indicating active legislative momentum
- ›Alternative legislative pathways (standalone bills, continuing resolutions) have been explicitly ruled out by leadership
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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