Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026
Leader sits at 94% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jun 14, 2026
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
Before Jun 6, 2026
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$18K
liquid
Closes
Jun 14, 2026
36 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 23, 2026?: Before May 23, 2026
KXSENATEREC-26MAY-MAY23
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026?: Before May 20, 2026
KXSENATEREC-26MAY-MAY20
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 6, 2026?: Before Jun 6, 2026
KXSENATEREC-26MAY-JUN06
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 16, 2026?: Before May 16, 2026
KXSENATEREC-26MAY-MAY16
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jun 14, 2026?: Before Jun 14, 2026
KXSENATEREC-26MAY-JUN14
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 21 h ago.