Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026

Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Congress will pass at least one reconciliation bill—a legislative tool allowing certain budget-related measures to bypass the 60-vote Senate filibuster—between now and year-end 2026. The 93% price suggests traders view passage as highly likely, primarily because Democrats currently hold Senate control and can pass reconciliation unilaterally if united. The probability would decline if Republicans gain Senate seats in the 2026 midterms or if internal Democratic disagreements prevent consensus on bill contents. The single biggest catalyst is the November 2026 midterm election, which will determine Senate composition and the legislative dynamics for the remainder of the year. If Republicans capture the Senate, passage becomes substantially less probable, whereas a Democratic gain would reinforce the current high expectation.

• ›Current Senate composition and Democratic unified control of both chambers, enabling reconciliation passage without Republican support
• ›The November 2026 midterm election outcome, particularly Senate seats, which will determine post-election legislative feasibility through December 31
• ›Historical precedent that reconciliation bills are frequently used vehicles for budget-related partisan legislation, making passage more probable than zero
• ›Potential intra-party disagreement among Democrats on reconciliation bill scope, timing, or contents that could delay or prevent a floor vote
• ›The calendar constraint—less than 8 months remain for drafting, committee passage, and full-chamber votes before year-end deadline

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