Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the Department of Homeland Security being funded at 12:01 AM ET the calendar day after enactment become law before May 15, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This question asks whether Congress will pass legislation funding the Department of Homeland Security with an effective date of 12:01 AM ET the day after the bill becomes law, before May 15, 2026. At 85%, the market reflects high confidence this will occur. The timing is driven by Congress's regular appropriations deadlines and the mandatory nature of DHS funding. The main uncertainty centers on whether lawmakers can reach agreement on funding levels and policy riders before the May 15 deadline, or whether they extend existing funding through a continuing resolution instead. The key catalyst is the congressional budget deadline itself, typically mid-May. Passage depends on whether appropriators prioritize DHS funding separately versus bundling it with other agencies, and whether partisan disagreements over immigration enforcement or other DHS functions create obstacles.

• ›Congress has historically passed most appropriations bills before fiscal year deadlines, though continuing resolutions remain common in divided governments
• ›DHS funding is typically separated as a distinct appropriations category, suggesting dedicated legislative focus rather than being packaged with unrelated legislation
• ›The May 15 deadline is approximately 12 days away, providing a compressed window for legislative action that either enables urgent passage or forces a temporary funding extension
• ›Current divided government control and active policy disputes over immigration enforcement and border operations could delay agreement on DHS-specific funding levels and conditions
• ›Market pricing at 85% indicates traders assess routine appropriations passage as likely but not certain, pricing in realistic failure scenarios around legislative gridlock or strategic delays

What moved the line

• Jul 19Mandatory body-worn cameras↑4pp7→11¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 18Before Jan 1, 2027↓3pp17→14¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 20Mandatory body-worn cameras↓3pp11→8¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in legislation

• Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without Donald Trump’s signature before Jul 14, 2026last 97% · 8d
• Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026last 97% · 43d
• Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...last 97% · 46d
• Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 60d
• Will sports prediction markets be banned?last 21% · 0d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds