Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the Department of Homeland Security being funded at 12:01 AM ET the calendar day after enactment become law before May 15, 2026
Leader sits at 26% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Export-control chip security
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
Yes
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
102 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will legislation that
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXELECTIONBILL-27JAN01
Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years become law before Jan 1, 2027?: FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)
KXBILLS-FISA
Will legislation that authorizes funding for construction of a presidential ballroom become law before Jan 1, 2027?: White House ballroom funding
KXBILLS-BALL
Will legislation that removes Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor from the line of succession to the British throne become law in United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes
KXANDREWSUCCESSION-27JAN01
Will legislation that decouples New York tax law from the federal Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) gain exclusion under IRC §1202 become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes
KXNYQSBS-27JAN01
Will legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Critical-minerals stockpile
KXBILLS-MIN
Will legislation that requires location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Export-control chip security
KXBILLS-CHIP
Will legislation that mandates expanded adoption of ADS-B “Out” aircraft tracking technology become law before Jan 1, 2027?: ROTOR Act
KXBILLS-ROTOR
Will legislation that would require Treasury to mint and issue $2.50 coins to mark America’s 250th anniversary become law before Jan 1, 2027?: $2.50 Coin
KXBILLS-250C
Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act
KXBILLS-HRCA
Analysis
This market measures whether Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor will be legislatively removed from the British line of succession before January 1, 2027. At 55%, traders view passage as more likely than not but uncertain. The probability reflects the political feasibility of pursuing such legislation in the UK Parliament, balanced against the question of whether there is sufficient political will to advance it. Key dynamics include public opinion on the royal family, parliamentary priorities, and whether recent events create momentum for constitutional change. The main catalyst would be significant political developments or parliamentary action on related succession matters before year-end 2026. Current trading volume is minimal, suggesting limited market participation and potentially wider uncertainty bounds than the headline price indicates.
- ›UK Parliament has not recently prioritized legislation altering line of succession; such bills face procedural and political obstacles requiring substantial support
- ›Public sentiment regarding Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor and his removal specifically would need to translate into legislative action by December 31, 2026
- ›No scheduled parliamentary vote or formal bill introduction currently reported would indicate imminent floor consideration
- ›The broader pattern of legislative activity on royal prerogatives and constitutional matters suggests this remains a lower-priority reform relative to other UK governance issues
- ›Trading volume of $0 in 24 hours indicates minimal market conviction, suggesting the 55% price may not reflect deep analyst consensus
What moved the line
- Sep 17ROTOR Act↓5pp8→3¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Export-control chip security↓3pp27→24¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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