Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the Department of Homeland Security being funded at 12:01 AM ET the calendar day after enactment become law before May 15, 2026
Leader sits at 89% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 75%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jul 1, 2026
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
75¢
Housing for the 21st Century
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$14K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
208 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will legislation that
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXELECTIONBILL-AUG01
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXELECTIONBILL-27JAN01
Will legislation that imposes liability for damages caused by a chatbot impersonating certain licensed professionals become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes
KXNYAIBILL-27JAN01
Will legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes become law before Jan 1, 2027?: DEFIANCE Act
KXBILLS-DEFY
Will legislation that requires location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Export-control chip security
KXBILLS-CHIP
Will legislation that authorizes funding for construction of a presidential ballroom become law before Jan 1, 2027?: White House ballroom funding
KXBILLS-BALL
Will legislation that designates June 14, the birthday of President Donald J. Trump, as a legal public holiday for federal employees become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday
KXBILLS-DJTB
Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXICEERO-26MAR-JUL01
Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years become law before Jan 1, 2027?: FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)
KXBILLS-FISA
Will legislation that removes Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor from the line of succession to the British throne become law in United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes
KXANDREWSUCCESSION-27JAN01
Will legislation that redefines “showerhead” for DOE rules to allow multi-nozzle systems become law before Jan 1, 2027?: SHOWER Act
KXBILLS-SHOW
Will legislation that decouples New York tax law from the federal Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) gain exclusion under IRC §1202 become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes
KXNYQSBS-27JAN01
Will legislation that authorizes siting the Women’s History Museum within the National Mall Reserve become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Smithsonian Women’s History Museum
KXBILLS-SMITH
Will legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Critical-minerals stockpile
KXBILLS-MIN
Will legislation that requires ICE and CBP personnel engaged in enforcement operations to wear body-worn cameras become law in 2026?: Mandatory body-worn cameras
KXICEREFORM-CAM
Will legislation that mandates expanded adoption of ADS-B “Out” aircraft tracking technology become law before Jan 1, 2027?: ROTOR Act
KXBILLS-ROTOR
Will legislation that would require Treasury to mint and issue $2.50 coins to mark America’s 250th anniversary become law before Jan 1, 2027?: $2.50 Coin
KXBILLS-250C
Will legislation that would revise federal housing programs to increase housing supply and affordability by expanding federal financing and grant authority for affordable housing and streamlining federal requirements that delay housing development become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Housing for the 21st Century Act
KXBILLS-HOUS
Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act
KXBILLS-HRCA
Analysis
This question asks whether Congress will pass legislation funding the Department of Homeland Security with an effective date of 12:01 AM ET the day after the bill becomes law, before May 15, 2026. At 85%, the market reflects high confidence this will occur. The timing is driven by Congress's regular appropriations deadlines and the mandatory nature of DHS funding. The main uncertainty centers on whether lawmakers can reach agreement on funding levels and policy riders before the May 15 deadline, or whether they extend existing funding through a continuing resolution instead. The key catalyst is the congressional budget deadline itself, typically mid-May. Passage depends on whether appropriators prioritize DHS funding separately versus bundling it with other agencies, and whether partisan disagreements over immigration enforcement or other DHS functions create obstacles.
- ›Congress has historically passed most appropriations bills before fiscal year deadlines, though continuing resolutions remain common in divided governments
- ›DHS funding is typically separated as a distinct appropriations category, suggesting dedicated legislative focus rather than being packaged with unrelated legislation
- ›The May 15 deadline is approximately 12 days away, providing a compressed window for legislative action that either enables urgent passage or forces a temporary funding extension
- ›Current divided government control and active policy disputes over immigration enforcement and border operations could delay agreement on DHS-specific funding levels and conditions
- ›Market pricing at 85% indicates traders assess routine appropriations passage as likely but not certain, pricing in realistic failure scenarios around legislative gridlock or strategic delays
What moved the line
- Jun 5Yes↓37pp70→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Yes↓19pp33→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Yes↓11pp81→70¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)↓10pp31→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Before Jul 1, 2026↑9pp69→78¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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