São Paulo Governor Election Winner
Leader sits at 85% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Tarcísio de Freitas
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Kim Kataguiri
Spread
77pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Oct 4, 2026
132 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
São Paulo Governor Election Winner
Analysis
This probability reflects the current market expectation that Tarcísio de Freitas will win the São Paulo gubernatorial race, with an 84% chance priced in. The high confidence in de Freitas is likely driven by his incumbent status, polling leads, and political alignment with the national administration. The 9% for Fernando Haddad and 6% for Kim Kataguiri suggest meaningful but smaller probabilities for alternative outcomes. The probability would shift materially on new polling data, campaign developments, or scandals affecting any candidate. The election is scheduled for late 2026, with campaign dynamics and voter sentiment potentially moving markets significantly in coming months as the race intensifies.
- ›Tarcísio de Freitas holds incumbent advantage as current São Paulo Governor, a structural factor typically associated with higher re-election odds
- ›Recent polling data on voting intention in São Paulo state and approval ratings for the current governor would directly validate or contradict the 84% pricing
- ›Campaign finance disclosures and spending levels by competing candidates, which affect media reach and organizational capacity in a large state
- ›Any major corruption allegations, resignations, or health issues affecting de Freitas or primary challengers would likely trigger sharp price movements
- ›Election date is scheduled for October 2026, meaning uncertainty should compress significantly in Q3-Q4 as voting approaches and final polling emerges
What moved the line
- May 23Tarcísio de Freitas↑5pp84→89¢ · Polymarket
- May 24Tarcísio de Freitas↓3pp89→86¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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2026 House Race Tightens: Democrats slip 5¢, Republicans gain 3¢
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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