SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
565 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes): 1T+
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes): 1T+
0xdafaa7…c49e
Analysis
This probability represents the odds that SpaceX will not go public before the end of 2027. At 4%, markets are pricing an extremely low chance of no IPO occurring within the next ~20 months. The current assessment reflects strong consensus that an IPO is likely to happen before the 2028 deadline, driven by SpaceX's operational maturity, revenue generation from Starship development and Starlink, and Elon Musk's previous public interest in going public. The main factor that could shift this probability is any official SpaceX or regulatory announcement about IPO timing, delisting considerations, or material changes to the company's financial performance that might delay public markets entry. The key uncertainty resolution point would be any formal SEC filing or company statement regarding IPO plans for 2026-2027.
- ›SpaceX generated approximately $6.5B in revenue in 2024 and operates two revenue-producing divisions (Starlink and launch services) typical of IPO-ready companies
- ›Elon Musk has publicly discussed IPO plans multiple times, though no formal SEC filing has been made as of May 2026
- ›Market prices for higher valuation ranges ($1.5T-$2.0T, $2.2T+) trade at 33¢-43¢, suggesting belief in an IPO occurring but with significant valuation uncertainty
- ›No official SpaceX statement confirming or denying 2026-2027 IPO timeline has been widely reported, leaving the market to infer timing from operational readiness signals
- ›A formal S-1 filing with the SEC would be the primary catalyst to dramatically shift this probability, as it would indicate imminent public listing
Recently closed in ai tech
- What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026last 36% · 0d
- Next OpenAI Modellast 83% · 0d
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$2.0Tlast 92% · 0d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 0d
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Caplast 48% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ai tech
Related reading
Anthropic Leads the AI Model Race as GPT-5.6 Release Looms
The market for the best AI model by end of June has solidified around Anthropic (86¢), while contracts on a GPT-5.6 release before July 31 are trading at 97%. This points to a major inflection point in the AI wars, with traders betting on a direct competitive response from Anthropic.
Anthropic Dominates AI Model Race as GPT-5.6 Release Nears
Anthropic's Claude is now a 92¢ favorite to be the best AI model at end of June, while GPT-5.6 release odds jumped 7¢ to 24% for a June 15 launch. The AI benchmark leaderboard is shifting rapidly.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.