SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)
Leader sits at 92% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1T+
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
No IPO before 2028
Spread
88pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
606 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)
Analysis
This probability represents the odds that SpaceX will not go public before the end of 2027. At 4%, markets are pricing an extremely low chance of no IPO occurring within the next ~20 months. The current assessment reflects strong consensus that an IPO is likely to happen before the 2028 deadline, driven by SpaceX's operational maturity, revenue generation from Starship development and Starlink, and Elon Musk's previous public interest in going public. The main factor that could shift this probability is any official SpaceX or regulatory announcement about IPO timing, delisting considerations, or material changes to the company's financial performance that might delay public markets entry. The key uncertainty resolution point would be any formal SEC filing or company statement regarding IPO plans for 2026-2027.
- ›SpaceX generated approximately $6.5B in revenue in 2024 and operates two revenue-producing divisions (Starlink and launch services) typical of IPO-ready companies
- ›Elon Musk has publicly discussed IPO plans multiple times, though no formal SEC filing has been made as of May 2026
- ›Market prices for higher valuation ranges ($1.5T-$2.0T, $2.2T+) trade at 33¢-43¢, suggesting belief in an IPO occurring but with significant valuation uncertainty
- ›No official SpaceX statement confirming or denying 2026-2027 IPO timeline has been widely reported, leaving the market to infer timing from operational readiness signals
- ›A formal S-1 filing with the SEC would be the primary catalyst to dramatically shift this probability, as it would indicate imminent public listing
What moved the line
- Apr 281T+↓32pp94→62¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 291T+↑32pp62→94¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28No IPO before 2028↑6pp4→10¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29No IPO before 2028↓6pp10→4¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (92% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ai tech
Related reading
Anthropic Crushes AI Benchmarks: OpenAI Loses 50¢ on Math Model Market in One Day
A seismic shift in AI prediction markets today as Anthropic surged to 99¢ for best overall model and 81¢ for best math model, while OpenAI collapsed from leader to 19¢ on math. This is one of the largest single-day moves seen in the AI competitive landscape markets.
Anthropic Dethroning OpenAI: AI Model Crown Shifts Dramatically in April Markets
Anthropic's 'best AI model' contract surged +5¢ to 95¢ while OpenAI collapsed -4¢ to just 6¢ in a single day, suggesting a major model release or benchmark has flipped market consensus. This is one of the largest single-day AI sentiment shifts in prediction market history.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.