SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes): 1T+
Leader sits at 92% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1T+
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
No IPO before 2028
Spread
88pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
606 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)
Analysis
This market estimates a 93% probability that SpaceX will complete an initial public offering with a closing market capitalization of at least $1 trillion before 2028. The high probability reflects strong market confidence in SpaceX's valuation based on its recent funding rounds, demonstrated revenue growth, and operational success in commercial spaceflight and satellite internet. The probability could shift based on changes in SpaceX's financial performance, regulatory developments affecting space companies, or macroeconomic conditions influencing IPO markets. The main uncertainty centers on timing—whether SpaceX files for IPO, completes SEC review, and achieves this valuation floor by the deadline. Key catalysts include any formal IPO announcement from SpaceX leadership, quarterly financial performance disclosures, changes in public market appetite for space-sector investments, or significant regulatory or contractual developments affecting the company's business prospects.
- ›SpaceX's most recent funding round valuation and trajectory of private market valuations for comparable aerospace/space-tech companies
- ›Publicly disclosed SpaceX revenue figures, government contract awards, and Starlink subscriber growth rates
- ›Stated intentions or timeline announcements from SpaceX leadership regarding public offering plans
- ›Market conditions and IPO activity in technology and aerospace sectors during the resolution window
- ›Regulatory or policy changes affecting commercial space activities, satellite operations, or aerospace manufacturing
What moved the line
- Apr 281T+↓32pp94→62¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 291T+↑32pp62→94¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28No IPO before 2028↑6pp4→10¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29No IPO before 2028↓6pp10→4¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (92% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.