Sparta Rotterdam vs. Go Ahead Eagles
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$43K
12 contracts
Closes
May 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Sparta vs GA Eagles Winner” vs “Will SPARTA win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Sparta vs GA Eagles Winner
Cluster 2
Will SPARTA win
Will SPARTA win the SPARTA vs. Team Nemesis CS2 match?: SPARTA
KXCS2GAME-26MAY031300SPARTANEM-SPARTA
Will SPARTA win map 1 in the SPARTA vs. Team Nemesis match?: SPARTA
KXCS2MAP-26MAY031300SPARTANEM-1-SPARTA
Will SPARTA win map 2 in the SPARTA vs. Team Nemesis match?: SPARTA
KXCS2MAP-26MAY031300SPARTANEM-2-SPARTA
Cluster 3
Will Team Nemesis win
Will Team Nemesis win the SPARTA vs. Team Nemesis CS2 match?: Team Nemesis
KXCS2GAME-26MAY031300SPARTANEM-NEM
Will Team Nemesis win map 1 in the SPARTA vs. Team Nemesis match?: Team Nemesis
KXCS2MAP-26MAY031300SPARTANEM-1-NEM
Will Team Nemesis win map 2 in the SPARTA vs. Team Nemesis match?: Team Nemesis
KXCS2MAP-26MAY031300SPARTANEM-2-NEM
Cluster 4
GA Eagles at Sparta: Totals: Over
Cluster 5
Will over 2.5 maps be played in the SPARTA vs. Team Nemesis CS2 match
What moved the line
- May 3Team Nemesis↑26pp4→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Team Nemesis↑23pp4→27¢ · Kalshi
- May 3SPARTA↑19pp4→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 2.5 maps↑19pp2→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 3SPARTA↑18pp4→22¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 15 h ago.