Top Spotify artist in May
Leader sits at 69% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Bruno Mars
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
Justin Bieber
Spread
40pp
contested
24h volume
$9K
modest
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Top Spotify artist in May
Analysis
This probability reflects market participants' assessment that Bruno Mars is the leading artist by streams on Spotify during May 2026. The 86% price indicates strong confidence, though the 14% alternative for Justin Bieber suggests meaningful uncertainty remains. The current market view appears anchored to real-time streaming data and artist release schedules. Major factors that could shift the probability include unexpected album or single releases, viral trends affecting stream counts, or changes in listener engagement patterns. The resolution will depend on Spotify's official monthly listening statistics, typically released early in the following month, which will definitively show which artist accumulated the most streams during the May period.
- ›Streaming volume depends heavily on new releases; any surprise major single or album launch from either artist or competitors could shift market perception significantly
- ›Current contract pricing shows a 6x gap in volatility ($6,432 vs $1,566 24-hour volume), suggesting material uncertainty exists despite the high probability on the leader
- ›Bruno Mars' current streaming momentum and recent catalog position are being priced into the 86% level, but historical Spotify competition shows outcomes can shift in the final weeks of a month
- ›Resolution occurs when Spotify publishes official May 2026 monthly streaming data, likely in early June, making this a binary outcome with no interim updates
- ›Artist touring schedules, playlist placements, and cultural moments (awards, controversies, or media coverage) could shift listener attention and stream counts during the measurement period
What moved the line
- May 26Justin Bieber↓4pp14→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 26Bruno Mars↑3pp86→89¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (69% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.