Will the Number of Airport Passengers Screened for April 22, 2026 be above 2900000
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
16 contracts
Top contract
23¢
$657 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “Will the number” vs “What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the number
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?: Yes
KXCITRINI-28JUL01
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 3 in May 2026?: 3
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26JUN01-T3
Will the number of full-width New York Times front page headlines be at least 1 in May 2026?: At least 1
KXNYTHEAD-26MAY-T1
Will the number of full-width New York Times front page headlines be at least 2 in May 2026?: At least 2
KXNYTHEAD-26MAY-T2
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 8 in May 2026?: 8
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26JUN01-T8
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 7 in May 2026?: 7
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26JUN01-T7
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 5 in May 2026?: 5
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26JUN01-T5
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 6 in May 2026?: 6
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26JUN01-T6
Will the number of AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates who lose their primary be at least 10 between Apr 10, 2026 and Sep 16, 2026?: At least 10
KXAIPACLOSEPRIMARY-26SEP16-T10
Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before June 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026
KXLEAVEHOUSECOMBO-27JAN01-B260601
Will the number of full-width New York Times front page headlines be at least 3 in May 2026?: At least 3
KXNYTHEAD-26MAY-T3
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?: 3
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T3
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 4 in May 2026?: 4
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26JUN01-T4
Will the number of ICE removals be above 500000 in FY2026?: Above 500,000
KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T500000
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?: 2
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T2
Cluster 2
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration
What moved the line
- May 2At least 1↑6pp73→79¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Above 500,000↓4pp28→24¢ · Kalshi
- May 2At least 3↑3pp18→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 3At least 3↓3pp21→18¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.