Number of ICE removals above 500000 in FY2026
Above 500,000 is priced at 34¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 33¢ bid, 34¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 5 inside Will the number of ICE removals be above.
Price history
34¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If the number of ICE removals is above 500,000 in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 500,000
Rank
#4 of 5
Leader
Above 200,000 95¢
Range
24¢-95¢
Family volume
$116
Identifier
KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T500000
Jun 25, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
33¢
Ask
34¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$11K
Family rank
#4 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the number of ICE removals be above
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$116
Orderbook snapshot
33 / 34¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the number of ICE removals is above 500,000 in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T500000
Event family
Will the number of ICE removals be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$116
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Above 200,000 95¢
Current share
0%
Above 200,000
kalshi · KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T200000
Above 300,000
kalshi · KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T300000
Above 400,000
kalshi · KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T400000
Above 500,000
kalshi · KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T500000
Above 600,000
kalshi · KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T600000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.