What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?
This contract is priced at 35¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 31¢ bid, 35¢ ask, 4¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
3
Family volume
$235
Best sibling
At least 1000 99¢
Ticker
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-5000
Price history
35¢ current
+2¢Orderbook snapshot
31 / 35¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 5000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Identifier
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-5000
Event family
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$235
Outcomes
3
Highest price
At least 1000 99¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
data_release
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