At least 5000 · What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least
At least 5000 is priced at 34¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 32¢ bid, 36¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 7 inside What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least.
Price history
34¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 5000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 5000
Rank
#7 of 7
Leader
At least 2000 89¢
Range
32¢-89¢
Family volume
$19
Identifier
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-5000
Aug 8, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
32¢
Ask
36¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$36K
Family rank
#7 of 7
7 outcomes · What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Family volume
$19
Orderbook snapshot
32 / 36¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 5000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Identifier
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-5000
Event family
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$19
Outcomes
7
Highest price
At least 2000 89¢
Current share
0%
At least 2000
kalshi · KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-2000
At least 2500
kalshi · KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-2500
At least 3000
kalshi · KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-3000
At least 3500
kalshi · KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-3500
At least 4000
kalshi · KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-4000
At least 4500
kalshi · KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-4500
At least 5000
kalshi · KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-5000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.