Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
8%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+4pp
13h ago
24h volume
$142
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?: May 31
0x50544b…e6bf
Analysis
This market asks whether Ukrainian forces will retake the towns of Obratne or Temyrivka by a specified date. The 4% probability reflects skepticism about near-term Ukrainian territorial gains in this sector. The assessment depends primarily on two factors: the current military balance of forces in the region and the rate at which Ukrainian counteroffensives can penetrate Russian-held territory. The key catalyst will be observable changes in front-line positions over the coming months, particularly whether Ukrainian forces can achieve sustained advances in this area or whether the front remains static. Resolution hinges on verified territorial control rather than claims, making satellite imagery and independent reporting crucial to the outcome.
- ›Current distance of Ukrainian forces from Obratne and Temyrivka relative to documented front lines as of May 2026
- ›Rate of Ukrainian territorial gains in adjacent sectors over the previous 6-12 months
- ›Russian defensive capabilities and reinforcement levels in this specific region
- ›Availability of Ukrainian reserves and equipment for offensive operations
- ›Timeframe specified in the contract—earlier deadlines face steeper odds than later ones
What moved the line
- May 1May 31↓16pp23→7¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29May 31↓11pp34→23¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27May 31↑6pp24→30¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28May 31↑4pp30→34¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 26May 31↓3pp27→24¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (8% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske: Battlefield Market Resolves at 93¢
The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' contract surged +88¢ to 93¢ in a single session, one of the largest single-day moves in the entire dataset. The May 31 version also jumped +79¢ to 96¢. This near-certain resolution suggests Ukrainian forces have successfully re-entered the contested town of Rodynske.
Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske — Biggest Battlefield Move in Prediction Markets
The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' market exploded +92¢ to 96¢, one of the single largest moves in the entire dataset today. This effectively confirms Ukrainian forces have re-taken the town of Rodynske, representing a significant tactical reversal in the Donetsk region.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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