Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
6%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?: May 31
0x03c903…8888
Analysis
This market estimates a 6% chance that Ukrainian forces will retake Uspenivka by a specified deadline. The low probability reflects the significant territorial challenges Ukraine faces in recapturing held positions, given current military capacities and Russian defensive positions. The estimate could shift substantially based on major changes in military aid provision, troop availability, or tactical developments on the eastern front. Key drivers include the pace of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, NATO military support levels, and Russian reinforcement and defensive capabilities in the sector. The primary uncertainty catalyst would be either a major breakthrough in Ukrainian offensive operations or a significant change in military support that alters operational feasibility within the timeframe.
- ›Current Ukrainian control status of Uspenivka and distance from front lines as of market creation
- ›Volume and type of military aid commitments to Ukraine over the relevant timeframe
- ›Russian defensive positions, troop concentrations, and fortification status in the sector
- ›Ukrainian casualty rates, equipment losses, and force mobilization capacity relative to offensive requirements
- ›Seasonal conditions and historical offensive timelines for comparable operations in this theater
What moved the line
- Apr 29May 31↓15pp22→7¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28May 31↑11pp11→22¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske: Battlefield Market Resolves at 93¢
The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' contract surged +88¢ to 93¢ in a single session, one of the largest single-day moves in the entire dataset. The May 31 version also jumped +79¢ to 96¢. This near-certain resolution suggests Ukrainian forces have successfully re-entered the contested town of Rodynske.
Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske — Biggest Battlefield Move in Prediction Markets
The 'Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?' market exploded +92¢ to 96¢, one of the single largest moves in the entire dataset today. This effectively confirms Ukrainian forces have re-taken the town of Rodynske, representing a significant tactical reversal in the Donetsk region.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 11 min ago.