Will USD/IRR for April 2026 be above 1,100,000
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
41%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$12K
19 contracts
Top contract
64¢
$3K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will the rate of c” vs “Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 36”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the rate of c
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.6%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.6
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 4.0%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T4.0
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 2.5%
KXCPICOREYOY-26APR-T2.5
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.7%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.7
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.8%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.8
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.9%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.9
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 2.6%
KXCPICOREYOY-26APR-T2.6
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.5%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.5
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.4%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.4
Cluster 2
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 36
Cluster 3
Will China balance of trade for April 2026 be above
Cluster 4
Will Germany inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2
Cluster 5
Will France inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.4%
Will France inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4%
KXFRCPIPREL-26MAY13-T2.4
Cluster 6
Will Italy inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 3.0%
Will Italy inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 3.0%?: Above 3.0%
KXITCPIPREL-26MAY15-T3.0
Cluster 7
Will US housing starts for April 2026 be above 1.400M
Will US housing starts for April 2026 be above 1.400M?: Above 1.400M
KXHOUSINGSTART-26MAY21-T1.400
Cluster 8
Will Euro area inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.9%
Will Euro area inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.9%?: Above 2.9%
KXEZCPIYOYF-26MAY20-T2.9
What moved the line
- May 1Above 2.8%↑38pp4→42¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Above 1.400M↑29pp32→61¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Above 3.4%↓25pp94→69¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Above 3.4%↑25pp69→94¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Above 2.8%↑25pp42→67¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.