Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 57% probability that Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in April 2026?. This contract trades at 57¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. This market has experienced dramatic price compression, dropping 15 cents over seven days to 57¢, suggesting recent economic data or Fed communications have shifted expectations toward lower core inflation.
Analysis
This market has experienced dramatic price compression, dropping 15 cents over seven days to 57¢, suggesting recent economic data or Fed communications have shifted expectations toward lower core inflation. The implied yields are extraordinarily high (1145.8% for Yes, 2013.3% for No), reflecting the extreme leverage available with just 24 days to expiry and minimal liquidity ($38 daily volume, $6.7k open interest). The tight 2¢ spread and neutral regime score indicate fair pricing despite the thin market, though the sharp recent decline warrants caution about whether this reflects genuine probability shifts or technical selling pressure.
Resolution rules
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.6% in the twelve months ending April 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCPICOREYOY-26APR-T2.6 yes 100