Will Portugal finish bottom of Group K in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability estimates the chance that Portugal finishes last in Group K at the 2026 World Cup, currently priced at 17%. Portugal's group assignment includes France, Uruguay, and Ghana—a competitive field where Portugal's actual finishing position will depend on head-to-head performance and goal differential. The probability reflects Portugal's historical strength as a national team, recent tournament performance, and the relative quality of other Group K nations. Factors that would increase this probability include poor qualifying form, injury to key players, or underperformance in pre-tournament matches. Conversely, strong preparation and favorable match outcomes would decrease it. The uncertainty will largely resolve during Group K matches in summer 2026, with some adjustments likely occurring between now and then based on friendlies and any roster changes.

• ›Portugal's FIFA ranking relative to France, Uruguay, and Ghana; current rankings suggest Portugal is stronger than Ghana but comparable to or behind France and Uruguay
• ›Head-to-head records and recent competitive history between Portugal and each Group K opponent; historical patterns in knockout and group stage performance
• ›Pre-tournament injury status and squad depth; availability of key Portugal national team players in early 2026
• ›Group K match schedule and fixture sequencing; certain orderings create different elimination scenarios
• ›Market pricing on related contracts shows Belgium, Spain, and Argentina (stronger traditional powers) trading at 3-8 cents, providing comparative context for how markets value bottom-finishing risk for competitive teams

What moved the line

• May 28Haiti↑7pp68→75¢ · Kalshi
• May 28Japan↑3pp3→6¢ · Kalshi
• May 28Sweden↑3pp3→6¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in sports

• LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2last 73% · 6d
• PSL Game PredictionsPeshawar Zalmilast 76% · 25d
• NBA Coach of the Year Winnerlast 93% · 1d
• What will any New York K player say during New York K Game 3 Postgame Media AvailabilityComeback / Come Backlast 81% · 3d
• NBA Eastern Conference Championlast 3% · 4d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds