Which team will replace Iran at FIFA World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$901
1 contracts
Closes
Aug 31, 2026
95 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which team will replace Iran at FIFA World Cup
Which team will replace Iran at FIFA World Cup?: Other
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Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Iran will not be replaced by another team at the next FIFA World Cup. The 92% probability for "No Replacement" suggests strong confidence that either Iran's FIFA suspension will be lifted or the situation will remain unchanged. The dominant driver of this price is the current status of Iran's participation eligibility and any ongoing FIFA disciplinary or political proceedings. Market participants are pricing in a low likelihood that another nation steps in as Iran's substitute, with Italy and UAE trading at 3¢ and 4¢ respectively as minor alternatives. The main catalyst would be an official FIFA ruling on Iran's World Cup participation status or confirmation of replacement procedures. Resolution depends on timing of FIFA's administrative decisions and Iran's compliance with any requirements.
- ›Iran's current FIFA disciplinary status and any announced sanctions affecting World Cup eligibility
- ›Official FIFA statement or ruling on whether Iran's World Cup participation will proceed as scheduled
- ›Whether FIFA has established or communicated formal procedures for team replacement and any announced timeline
- ›Trading volume concentration ($658 in 24h volume for the leading contract) suggesting modest liquidity and potential price sensitivity to new information
- ›Historical precedent for FIFA World Cup team replacements and current geopolitical context affecting Iran's international sporting participation
What moved the line
- May 25Other↑3pp1→4¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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