What price will XRP hit in May?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
7%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−7pp
16h ago
24h volume
$25K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
3 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price will XRP hit in May
What price will XRP hit in May?: ↓ 1.20
0xe15f87…aaae
Analysis
This contract predicts whether XRP will close May 2026 below $1.20, currently trading at 14% probability, indicating traders assess this outcome as unlikely but possible. XRP's price level relative to this threshold depends primarily on broader cryptocurrency market conditions and regulatory developments affecting the asset class. The contract resolves at the end of May, making spot price on May 31st the determining factor. Key drivers include Bitcoin's momentum, which typically influences altcoin valuations, and any regulatory announcements affecting XRP specifically—Ripple's ongoing litigation history means new legal developments could materially shift sentiment. Trading volume of $10,780 in 24 hours suggests moderate liquidity but limited transaction depth on this particular contract.
- ›XRP's current price level relative to $1.20 and recent trading range establishes the baseline for probability assessment
- ›Bitcoin and broader cryptocurrency market performance typically drives altcoin price movements and explains most XRP volatility
- ›Regulatory announcements or legal developments specific to Ripple or XRP could trigger sharp repricing of this outcome
- ›Contract liquidity ($10,780 daily volume) is moderate but not deep, meaning large trades could move the quoted probability
- ›Time remaining until May 31st resolution affects how much time remains for catalysts to move the price across the $1.20 threshold
What moved the line
- May 28↓ 1.20↑5pp14→19¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (7% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.