Starmer Cross-Venue Arb: Kalshi 62% vs Polymarket 56% Departure Odds

Kalshi prices Starmer departure by September at 62% while Polymarket prices year-end at 56% — the shorter deadline is priced higher, creating an inconsistency. The UK political crisis is real and accelerating, but the September deadline at 62% appears aggressive given Labour's structural advantages. This is a contrarian fade: buy NO on the nearer-term Kalshi market while the fundamental deterioration is real but not that fast.