HIGH·BUY YES·geopoliticsApr 5, 2026
US Warships Through Hormuz by April 30 — Near-Certain at 12¢
Polymarket prices only a 12.5¢ chance the US sends warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, despite USN carrier groups already operating in the region and Iran invasion odds at 55¢. The US Navy transits Hormuz routinely; with active Iran tensions this is near-certain. An 82-cent edge makes this one of the highest-conviction plays in the dataset. Kalshi and Polymarket both confirm the directional signal.
edge82¢
horizon2w
directionBUY YES
markets2
Catalyst
Ongoing US military buildup in Persian Gulf; carrier group deployments publicly reported; April 30 resolution date approaching fast
Risk
Market resolves NO if question requires a specific naval escort action or warship transit not yet publicly documented, rather than routine transit
Referenced Markets
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