Hormuz Traffic Markets Price Normal Flows Despite Iran Crisis

Kalshi's Hormuz traffic market prices a 95.5¢ chance that the 7-day moving average of vessel transits stays above 3 per day by April 1 — but with Iran invasion odds at 55¢ and a blockade scenario increasingly plausible, normal traffic flows are far from guaranteed. Buy NO on the above-3 transit market: the 80-cent edge reflects a market anchored to peacetime base rates while geopolitical risk has exploded. The above-30 transit market at 0.5¢ is also worth buying YES as a lottery on escalation.