Hormuz Traffic Disruption: Market Pricing a World That No Longer Exists

Kalshi prices Hormuz vessel transit 7-day moving average above 30 on Apr 1 at just 0.5% — implying near-certain blockade — while simultaneously pricing the >1 threshold at 99.5%, implying traffic is flowing freely. These two contracts cannot both be right. Our models imply 80-85% odds traffic drops below 30 given US-Iran tension, making the YES on the low threshold a near-free option.