Hormuz Blockade Massively Mispriced — Buy Naval Escalation Now
With US-Iran invasion odds at 56% and oil surging 12% in a single session, markets are dramatically underpricing a Hormuz naval confrontation. Polymarket has the US sending warships through Hormuz by April 30 at just 12.5% — our edge models put it at 90-95%. The same thesis prices US escort of commercial ships at 14.5% against a 92% implied probability. This is the most actionable cross-market mispricing in today's data.
US-Iran military negotiations breakdown; any kinetic incident in Persian Gulf week of Apr 7-14
Diplomatic back-channel deal or Iranian capitulation removes the military escalation pathway entirely
Referenced Markets
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?: United States
loading…US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30
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