Gas Prices Above $4.15 Badly Underpriced — Oil Spike Makes This Trivial

Kalshi prices $4.15 average gas by Apr 6 at just 4.5%, but USO just surged 12% in a single day and our thesis implies an 85% probability. Current national average is already tracking near this level, and a Hormuz disruption or continued tariff-driven supply shock makes sub-$4.15 the tail scenario, not the base case. Edge of 80+ cents makes this one of the most executable mispricings on the board.