HIGH·BUY YES·macroApr 5, 2026
Hormuz Blockade Risk Massively Mispriced at Kalshi Gas Markets
Oil surged 12% today and Iran invasion odds hit 55¢ on Polymarket, yet Kalshi's gas price markets are pricing $4.14+ gas at just 3.5¢ and $4.16+ at 1¢. With Hormuz traffic markets also showing huge edge, the thesis is simple: Iran conflict risk has not been priced into near-term US gas markets at all. Buy every gas price strike above $4.13 on Kalshi — the edge here is 80-86 cents per contract.
edge83¢
horizon1w
directionBUY YES
markets4
Catalyst
Iran invasion odds at 55¢ on Polymarket; oil up 12% today — gas pump prices typically follow WTI with 1-2 week lag, with April 6 settlement window in play
Risk
Oil rally reverses on ceasefire diplomacy or Iran de-escalation before April 6 gas price measurement date
Referenced Markets
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