Hormuz Traffic Above 30 Ships Is Near-Certainty, Priced at 1¢

Kalshi prices only a 1% chance that Hormuz vessel traffic exceeds 30 daily transits by April 1 — yet the Strait currently handles 20-21 million barrels per day across dozens of vessels. Even in heightened tension scenarios, normal commercial traffic remains well above 30 transits. This is a data/calibration error, not a real risk signal. Buy YES for near-certain resolution.