HIGH·BUY YES·geopoliticsApr 6, 2026

US Warships Through Hormuz Priced at 12¢ — Should Be 90¢+

Polymarket prices only a 12.5% chance the US sends warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, while Iran invasion odds sit at 55-60% and oil just surged 12%. With the US Navy's 5th Fleet already in the region and geopolitical pressure at fever pitch, naval demonstration of force is almost certain. This is the clearest mispricing in the dataset — buy YES immediately.

edge82¢
horizon2w
directionBUY YES
markets1
Catalyst

Ongoing Iran tensions; US military posture signals in the Gulf by April 30, 2026

Risk

US opts for diplomatic channels or sanctions-only response, deliberately avoiding naval provocation in the Strait

Referenced Markets

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