Zero Fed Cuts in 2026 Underpriced as Powell Turns Hawkish

Markets now price 37% odds of zero rate cuts all year — making it the single most likely outcome — yet this represents a massive shift from consensus just months ago. With April hold at 98%, the Fed is clearly in wait-and-see mode on tariff inflation. The zero-cuts scenario deserves 45-50% pricing given sticky CPI and an oil shock working through the system. Fade the rate-cut optimism.