Contrarian: Iran Regime Collapse Odds Too High Given Nuclear Deal Pricing

Markets simultaneously price Iranian regime collapse at 27% AND a nuclear deal at 39% — these are not independent events. A nuclear deal dramatically reduces the probability of regime collapse, yet the market is pricing both as if they're uncorrelated. The regime collapse market at 27% looks too rich given that 39% of outcomes resolve with a negotiated settlement that stabilizes the regime. Selling the regime collapse YES is the contrarian position in a market fixated on escalation.